2023 Oscars Predictions: Nominees, Contenders and Snubs

With the Oscars upon us, it’s time to preview some of the most important awards.

This preview covers Who Will Win, Who Should Win, and Who/What Deserved a Nomination
for each of the major “above-the-line” categories.

Another year, another Oscars season. Hopefully this ceremony focuses on filmmaking and performances rather than controversy. The field this year offers a pleasing mix of established masters (Spielberg, McDonagh) and bold new voices (the Daniels). The big question: can Everything Everywhere All at Once continue its remarkable momentum, or will more traditional favorites like Cameron, Spielberg, or McDonagh prevail?

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees:

• Angela Bassett
  Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Hong Chau
  The Whale
• Kerry Condon
  The Banshees of Inisherin
• Jamie Lee Curtis
  Everything Everywhere All at Once
• Stephanie Hsu
  Everything Everywhere All at Once

This category is unusually open. Jamie Lee Curtis has built strong momentum and looks poised to take the statuette, but every nominee here genuinely has a shot. The two actresses from Everything Everywhere All at Once could split votes, which might open the door for veterans like Angela Bassett or the quietly powerful Kerry Condon. Regardless of the outcome, it’s one of the Academy races where anyone can realistically win.

It’s also worth noting the omission of nominees from Women Talking. That film’s performances deserved recognition, and Jessie Buckley stands out as the one who most deserved a nod.

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees:

• Brendan Gleeson
  The Banshees of Inisherin
• Brian Tyree Henry
  Causeway
• Judd Hirsch
  The Fabelmans
• Barry Keoghan
  The Banshees of Inisherin
• Ke Huy Quan
  Everything Everywhere All at Once

Ke Huy Quan has become the sentimental favorite after his heartfelt work in Everything Everywhere All at Once. His performance anchors the film emotionally, and his standout scenes make him the likely winner. While Judd Hirsch’s nomination was pleasant, several critics felt Paul Dano’s quieter yet powerful turn in The Fabelmans was more deserving of recognition.

Best Actress

Nominees:

• Ana de Armas
  Blonde
• Cate Blanchett
  TAR
• Andrea Riseborough
  To Leslie
• Michelle Yeoh
  Everything Everywhere All at Once
• Michelle Williams
  The Fabelmans

The race here narrows to Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh. Blanchett delivers a powerhouse turn in TAR, but Yeoh benefits from strong awards-season momentum and a recent SAG win that often signals Academy support. Her layered performance in Everything Everywhere All at Once could tip the scales in her favor. One omission worth lamenting is Mia Goth’s show-stopping work in Pearl, which many felt merited recognition.

Best Actor

Nominees:

• Austin Butler
  Elvis
• Colin Farrell
  The Banshees of Inisherin
• Brendan Fraser
  The Whale
• Paul Mescal
  Aftersun
• Bill Nighy
  Living

This is a tight contest with Austin Butler, Colin Farrell, and Brendan Fraser all viable contenders. Butler benefits from the Academy’s historical affinity for committed musical biopic performances. Brendan Fraser’s comeback role has captured hearts, while Colin Farrell’s subtle, nuanced work in The Banshees of Inisherin arguably makes him the most deserving. Also regrettably overlooked: Eden Dambrine’s striking lead work in Close, a performance that showed maturity and emotional depth beyond his years.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees:

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
• Living
• Top Gun: Maverick
• Women Talking

All Quiet on the Western Front is riding strong awards-season momentum and looks likely to win here, though its screenplay didn’t strike this reviewer as radically different from recent war films. By contrast, Women Talking accomplishes a difficult adaptation—turning a largely single-room novel into a gripping, cinematic experience—and arguably should be rewarded. And After Yang remains a beautifully crafted, underseen work that deserved at least a nomination for its thoughtful adaptation.

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees:

• The Banshees of Inisherin
• Everything Everywhere All at Once
• The Fabelmans
• TAR
• Triangle of Sadness

This category is competitive. The Banshees of Inisherin is a sharp, darkly comic script from an auteur the Academy respects, which gives it an edge. Everything Everywhere All at Once is inventive and emotionally resonant and would be a worthy winner as well. A shout-out goes to Cha Cha Real Smooth, a sensitive debut screenplay that many feel should have been recognized.

Best Director

Nominees:

• Todd Field
  TAR
• Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
  Everything Everywhere All at Once
• Martin McDonagh
  The Banshees of Inisherin
• Ruben Östlund
  Triangle of Sadness
• Steven Spielberg
  The Fabelmans

The Daniels have led an unexpected awards-season surge, collecting many major directing prizes. Their bold visual style and emotional clarity make them deserving favorites. Spielberg is always a contender, especially for a partly autobiographical film like The Fabelmans, but the Daniels’ inventive command of storytelling gives them the advantage. Also noteworthy: Robert Eggers’ ambitious work on The Northman that many feel has been underrecognized.

Best Picture

Nominees:

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar
• The Banshees of Inisherin
• Elvis
• Everything Everywhere All at Once
• The Fabelmans
• TAR
• Top Gun: Maverick
• Triangle of Sadness
• Women Talking