The 74th annual Golden Globe Awards are upon us, and predictions are already flying across the industry. Here at The Film Magazine we’ll be covering the ceremony on Twitter at @thefilmagazine. In the spirit of awards-season speculation, I’ve put together my picks for who and what will take home a Golden Globe when the winners are announced at the Beverly Hilton on Sunday, January 8.
We’ll see how close these predictions land once the Globe winners are revealed.
Best Motion Picture – Drama: Moonlight
With six nominations overall and strong momentum from earlier awards, Moonlight looks poised to win Best Motion Picture – Drama. Its poignant and meticulously observed portrayal of a young black man growing up in Miami has resonated with critics and industry voters alike. While Manchester by the Sea is a close contender and Hacksaw Ridge could attract a more conservative segment of voters, Moonlight’s combination of critical acclaim and multiple nominations makes it the likeliest winner.
Best Performance By An Actress In A Motion Picture – Drama: Natalie Portman (Jackie)
This category comes down to Natalie Portman’s commanding turn as Jackie Kennedy versus Amy Adams in Arrival. Globes voters tend to welcome high-profile dramatic portrayals, particularly in biopics, and Portman’s performance fits that pattern. Though Adams’ work has generated considerable praise, Portman’s role as an iconic public figure and the awards-season momentum behind Jackie give her the edge here.
Best Performance By An Actor In A Motion Picture – Drama: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
The actor category for drama is exceptionally competitive this year, with several nominees offering compelling work. Casey Affleck has built momentum through other awards in the season and is a strong pick for Manchester by the Sea. Andrew Garfield is also notable—some voters might reward him for his multiple high-profile performances this year—but Affleck’s consistent recognition makes him my choice.
Best Motion Picture – Musical Or Comedy: La La Land
La La Land is the clear favorite in a comparatively weak musical/comedy field. Its technical brilliance, memorable music, and love-letter-to-Hollywood appeal set it apart from the other nominees. Though Deadpool and Sing Street earned nominations as unexpected fan and indie successes, La La Land’s widespread acclaim and awards momentum make it the near-certain winner.
Best Performance By An Actress In A Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy: Emma Stone (La La Land)
Emma Stone’s charismatic, nuanced lead performance in La La Land positions her as the frontrunner. Annette Bening is a possible outsider, but the Globes’ selection process and the split vote potential among other nominees reduce the likelihood of an upset. Stone’s role is both commercially resonant and artistically praised, giving her a strong edge.
Best Performance By An Actor In A Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy: Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
Ryan Gosling benefits from La La Land’s momentum in this category as well. While Colin Farrell’s work in The Lobster was widely praised and the supporting choices bring variety, Gosling’s pairing with Stone and the film’s overall reception make him the most probable winner.
Best Motion Picture – Animated: Zootopia
Zootopia stands out among the animated nominees for its critical success and broad appeal. Disney continues to dominate this category in most awards seasons, and Zootopia’s sharp storytelling and cultural resonance give it an advantage over other contenders such as Moana and the more art-house Kubo and the Two Strings.
Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language: Toni Erdmann
Toni Erdmann has already generated strong attention on the European awards circuit and fits well with the Globe voters’ tendency to recognize standout European films. However, Elle is a possible rival, since American awards often show affinity for French-language entries. This category is competitive, but Toni Erdmann’s awards-season acclaim positions it as my pick.
Best Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role In Any Motion Picture: Viola Davis (Fences)
The supporting actress field is packed with excellent work, from Naomie Harris’s striking small role in Moonlight to Michelle Williams’ quieter, acclaimed turns at independent festivals. Nicole Kidman for Lion and Viola Davis for Fences have been particularly visible, and Davis’s powerful presence and previous recognition make her a likely winner in a tightly contested category.
Best Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role In Any Motion Picture: Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
Jeff Bridges’ nuanced supporting work in Hell or High Water carries significant weight for voters looking to honor a seasoned performer in an understated but memorable role. Aaron Taylor-Johnson for Nocturnal Animals and Dev Patel for Lion are strong challengers, but Bridges’ gravitas and the critical praise for his performance place him ahead.
Best Director – Motion Picture: Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Damien Chazelle’s visual inventiveness and confident direction of La La Land make him the favorite for Best Director. Though Tom Ford’s Nocturnal Animals offered bold stylistic choices and directors like Barry Jenkins and Kenneth Lonergan helmed deeply felt dramas, Chazelle’s achievement in crafting a modern musical with classic Hollywood sensibilities is likely to earn the Golden Globe nod.
Best Screenplay – Motion Picture: Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
This screenplay category is a close contest between Kenneth Lonergan’s work on Manchester by the Sea and Barry Jenkins’ script for Moonlight. Moonlight’s layered structure and intimate character study have won many admirers, and Jenkins’ adaptation of a resonant, original story gives it an edge in a year of strong writing.
Best Original Score – Motion Picture: Justin Hurwitz (La La Land)
Justin Hurwitz’s score for La La Land is central to the film’s identity and emotional impact. When a score so effectively supports a film’s musical and narrative ambitions, awards recognition commonly follows. While Dustin O’Halloran and Hauschka’s score for Lion present a credible alternative, Hurwitz remains the front-runner.
Best Original Song – Motion Picture: “Can’t Stop the Feeling” (Trolls)
Justin Timberlake’s “Can’t Stop the Feeling” was one of 2016’s biggest pop hits and has the mainstream recognition that often influences this category. La La Land’s “City of Stars” is an artistic and narrative favorite and could split votes, but the commercial success and ubiquity of Timberlake’s song make it a strong pick for the Globe.
For the full list of nominees, refer to the Golden Globes nominee announcement linked on The Film Magazine site.